As per the report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the cost parity between Electric Vehicle (EV) and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICE) will come around 2025-2030. This prediction depends on cost decrease of lithium-ion battery (LiB) through its production increase and learning rate. Since this is the positive feedback cycle, once the demand on EV skyrockets, the battery cost will further decrease (if there are sufficient resources. This is critical). This may further promoted through the more strict emission standard all over the world. Given this rationale, recent EV-shift of major OEM is pretty much understandable.

So, for policy-makers and governments, now the question is how we should shift, instead of yes/no or when. An obvious challenge is charging infrastructure and grid stabilization. For policy-makers, reconstruction of tax collection system might be the most significant challenge because many countries the tax revenue from gasoline accounts for a substantial portion of their national income.

These challenges are very complex and entangled each other. This makes me feel that policy-makers and decision-makers must be a good systems thinker and need a new way to formulate policy and communicate.