The following is from the serial column of Ms. Sakurai Yoshiko, who brings the weekly Shincho released yesterday to a successful conclusion.
This article also proves that she is a supreme national treasure defined by Saicho.
It is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but also for people worldwide.
Professor Kennedy: "U.S. Will Not Decline
On March 9, I had a trilogy discussion with Professor Paul Kennedy at an international seminar titled "Is the United States in Decline? 
Professor Kennedy, who participated remotely from his home near Yale University in Connecticut, an eastern part of the U.S., quickly prepared and checked the audio.
We did the same, and we were ready well ahead of schedule. 
I introduced myself and asked, "If you don't mind, shall we begin?
Then, with a very cheerful expression, he said, "Let's do it! Professor Kennedy replied.
When I hear Paul Kennedy's name, I immediately think of the two volumes of The Rise and Fall of Great Powers.
The book, which describes the rise and fall of great powers from 1500 to 2000, became an international bestseller.
I have the 1988 edition translated by Suzuki Chikara (Soshisha).
At the time, I contributed articles to Bungeishunju and Shokun!, but I was not yet a writer, and Professor Kennedy was a shining light.
The man was ready and willing to get started. 
Is the United States in decline?
Is it in decline, and will it continue to decline?
There is nothing more urgent for Japan than these questions. 
After all, we must discuss Japan's security with the United States.
Whether we can stop the Chinese Communist Party's domination of the world is an important one that will determine the fate of Japan and the world as a whole. 
Professor Kennedy suggests that we first look back 500 years.
Five hundred years ago, China was the largest country in the world. After the 19th century, the world's major powers dominated, and Japan and the U.S. gained power in this new configuration. 
In the 20th century, World War I weakened Europe, and the United States and Japan gained power.
In the 20th century, World War I weakened Europe, and the U.S. and Japan gained strength. In World War II, the U.S. became a superpower, and Japan was defeated, losing millions of its people and falling to the level of the world's poorest country.
China is disappointed. 
After the war, Japan emerged again as a world power, and the U.S. led the Soviet Union to collapse and become the only superpower. 
Still, the whole world is trying to determine the reality of its power and future. 
In the midst of this, China has been actively promoting the theory of the decline of the United States.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, known as a pro-China politician, points out that Xi Jinping's policy toward the United States has been consistent since he became president in 2013, and his basic philosophy is that the tide of history is in China's favor (Foreign Affairs, March-April 2009). 
Rudd said China, which has already declared that it will surpass the United States and tower over the world in 2049, the centennial of its founding, is ahead of schedule in many ways on its path to becoming the world's most powerful nation.
The modernization of the military, for example, will be completed in six more years, by 2015, eight years ahead of schedule, he said.
The considerable acceleration is to gain an advantage over the U.S. in all aspects of its bid to take Taiwan.
Rudd writes that China is surprised that the U.S. reversal offensive is more limited than expected. China has set specific goals to break the U.S. dominance and is steadily implementing them individually. 
When I asked Professor Kennedy about China's proliferation of theories about U.S. decline, he replied that the Chinese media is unusually interested in writing about it because they want to witness it without going to war.
China's efforts to spread the theory of U.S. decline is probably part of their signature "three wars" (public opinion, psychological warfare, and legal warfare).
By creating the impression that the U.S. power is weakening, it may undermine confidence in the U.S., attract more countries to China, or even drive a wedge into the U.S. alliance.
It may be one way to make people think that China is more dependable than the U.S. 
After making the right point, Professor Kennedy asserted.
The decline of the United States is relative, not absolute. The U.S. may have to share its position with other rising powers, but it will remain strong. In that sense, China will be disappointed. 
Kennedy said that China would not defeat the U.S. and that its strength would come from its strong economy.
He stresses that the United States can achieve remarkable economic growth and prosperity for the American people. This will restore confidence in the U.S. government, respect and deference to democracy, and contribute to the nation's stability as a whole.
The Path of Japan 
However, he predicted that the U.S. would have to cooperate with its allies to confront China and gave high marks to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for his idea of a framework for cooperation among Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India. 
Looking back at history, there are similar cases. Before World War I, Germany built many ships with a large navy. The French, British, Russians, and others were wary, eventually leading to World War I. History has shown us the result.
Another similar example is the Soviet Union during the Cold War. They, too, built up their navy and expanded into the Mediterranean. In response, the U.S., Britain, France, Italy, and other countries cooperated closely to prevent the Soviet Union from engaging in aggressive activities. 
The Japan-U.S.-Australia-India Quad, Britain's willingness to join it, and even France and Germany's positive reaction to the Quad were all caused by China's aggressive offensive.
To paraphrase Professor Kennedy's historical example, the side that initiates the reckless friction loses.
In other words, in the case of the ongoing crisis, the loser is China.
On the 15th, when I wrote this article, the U.S. Secretaries of State and Defense visited Japan for the Japan-US Security Consultative Committee (2+2).
The document released by the U.S. government on April 14, "Reaffirming the Solid Japan-U.S. Alliance," clearly states that "U.S. involvement in defense of Japan is absolute," "Article 5 of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty applies to the Senkakus," and "Japan and the United States will cooperate in responding to China's challenges. 
There were fears that the Biden administration was a second Obama administration of appeasers against China.
However, the document's contents on the right, the realization of the "2+2" agreement, and Prime Minister Yoshihide Kan's arrival in Washington on the summit's first day all refute such suspicions.
Professor Kennedy said that if Japan's economic relationship with China deteriorates, there will be an alternative, but if Japan's security relationship with the U.S. deteriorates, there will be no alternative. 
He is right.
The trilogy made me think that Japan must realize significant reforms, including revising the Constitution, to survive as a decent nation in the great flow of history.