Dewey Sim

• US Indo-Pacific Command said to be seeking US$15.3 billion for operations next year, warning of rapid Chinese military expansion

• It comes as Beijing’s ‘muscular defence posture remains a global threat to great and middle powers in the region’, analyst says

The Pentagon's move to boost spending in the Pacific is likely to be embraced by countries in the region as they seek to push back against an increasingly assertive Beijing, analysts say.

Those nations would have preferred a situation where China and the United States looked to de-escalate their rivalry but that was unlikely, according to John Bradford, a senior fellow with the maritime security programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore.

"Therefore, they generally welcome US posture changes that can deter Chinese attempts to change the status quo and reduce the likelihood of conflict," he said.

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The US Indo-Pacific Command last week proposed in a congressional mandated report that it would need US$15.3 billion to fund its operations in the Pacific next year, a significant jump from the US$9 billion recommended last year.

According to the report obtained by Politico, the command warned of China's rapid military expansion and its efforts to "coerce" Washington's allies in a bid to dominate the region. It called for another US$71.8 billion to be used over the next four years.

"The security environment in the Indo-Pacific is becoming more dangerous and defined by an increasing risk of confrontation and crisis," it said. "The PLA's rapid modernisation efforts embolden the [Chinese Communist Party] to defy long-standing international legal norms and engage in more provocative behaviour."

The report was the command's independent assessment of the activities and resources needed to maintain Washington's comparative military advantage over China.

Among other things, it recommended added defence systems and equipment in Guam and Hawaii, with a portion of spending going to boosting US warfare capabilities and holding joint drills "focused on deterring China".

Chester Cabalza, founder of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila, said the increased Pentagon budget came as China's aggressive acquisition and spending now posed a challenge to America's long-held military dominance.

China last week announced a 7.2 per cent rise in its military expenditure for this year, the fastest pace in four years.

"The state-of-the-art military assets, sophisticated hardware and software, fortified by its growing global diplomatic network and economic influence, are manifestations of China's arrival as the new competitor of the US," Cabalza said.

"Despite Beijing's lack of world war and recent combat experience, its muscular defence posture remains a global threat to great and middle powers in the region."

He suggested that recent efforts by the US to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific region - such as the ramping up of its forces on outlying Guam - was a reaction to China's military ambitions.

"The strong leadership in China has posed major threats to the US since its strategic blow in Afghanistan and Iraq, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, the Taiwan Strait tension and South China Sea conundrum," Cabalza added.

Bradford, the senior fellow at RSIS, said Washington would continue to pump resources into its Indo-Pacific operations primarily to slow the rate at which China was gaining relative advantage and to strengthen its ability to deter what it regarded as Chinese aggression.

The likelihood of a violent conflict in the Taiwan Strait would also have been considered. "Urgency to ensure such an attack is deterred has multiplied," he said. "This thinking will certainly influence how resources are prioritised."

Earlier this year, a report by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank warned that the US defence-industrial base was unprepared for a protracted battle with Beijing over Taiwan as it would run out of military stocks.

Mainland China and Taiwan split in 1949 at the end of a civil war when the Kuomintang was defeated by Communist Party forces and fled to Taipei.

Beijing sees the island as part of China and has never ruled out the use of force to take control of it. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. Washington, however, opposes any attempt to take the island by force.

President Joe Biden has said on several occasions that US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by Beijing, which military officials have predicted could happen in the next few years.

But Chinese officials have dismissed such claims. In his first press conference as foreign minister last week, Qin Gang demanded that the US explain its plans for the "destruction of Taiwan", and warned that the mishandling of issues related to Taiwan would shake the foundation of China-US relations.

"The resolution of the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese people on our own, and no foreign country has the right to interfere," Qin said.

Bradford said China would certainly view the Pentagon's budget hike as "a sign of hawkish behaviour", adding that Beijing would fail to acknowledge that the direct trigger for a greater US presence in the region was its "sabre-rattling" on Taiwan issues.

Cabalza, the Manila-based analyst, said claimant nations in the disputed South China Sea - which Beijing claims almost in its entirety - had been waiting for Washington to be tougher in the region since former US president Barack Obama pushed for what he called a "pivot to Asia".

"It took a while for the US to accelerate its position in the region after the stage of denial that China has become stronger in the region," he said.

Manila, which has protested against Beijing's assertiveness in the South China Sea, would particularly benefit from the "US awakening", he said.

Washington last month expanded a defence pact with Manila that grants access for American troops to four additional bases, which analysts said would give the US better oversight over the disputed waters and around Taiwan.

"The US should use wisely this new opportunity to address the gaps and cement its strong presence in the Indo-Pacific region," Cabalza added.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2023 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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