2019.01.14 06:00

As we recently contributed to Agora, Panasonic will enter the full-frame mirrorless camera market pioneered by Sony, which took over Minolta's camera business, at the end of March 2019, following the entry of Nikon and Canon in 2018.

I recognize that the reason for Nikon and Canon's entry into the market is that they do not want Sony to further wreck the highly profitable full-frame SLR market. On the other hand, the reason for Panasonic's entry, which has never worked on full-frame SLRs, is probably to secure profits in the full-frame mirrorless camera market, which is currently hopefully highly profitable.

Under the "LUMIX" brand, Panasonic has been asking the market for compact digital cameras since 2001, four thirds single-lens reflex cameras since 2006, and micro four thirds mirrorless cameras since 2008. Unlike the three major manufacturers, Nikon, Canon, and Sony, Panasonic has been developing cameras under the "LUMIX" brand, which is different from the company's name.

Nikon and Canon have a very strong brand image in the camera industry because they have been producing high-end cameras used by professional photographers for many years. Sony entered the digital SLR market when it took over Minolta's SLR business, and although it still carefully uses the "α" model name since 1985, the brand and company name are the same. Although not as much as in the past, the brand "Sony = high-end audiovisual equipment manufacturer" is also utilized for cameras.

The reason why Panasonic is developing cameras under the "LUMIX" brand, which is different from the company name, is that the image of "Panasonic = white goods manufacturer" is so strong that the company has decided that it is disadvantageous to use the company name for a high-priced and highly profitable camera brand (as was the case with Kyocera's "CONTAX" brand in the past). (similar to how Kyocera used to manufacture and sell SLR cameras under the "CONTAX" brand).

By the way, the compact digital camera market has been eroded by smartphones in recent years, and its market size has shrunk significantly. a June 4, 2018 Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun article, "Shipment volume down to one-fifth in seven years; digital camera companies either withdraw or develop new markets? " reported the following.

"In particular, there has been a series of moves to withdraw from the compact type (commonly known as condenser digital cameras) over the past year. Casio Computer Co. announced that it is withdrawing from the compact digital camera business. The company's sales of compact digital cameras have plummeted from a peak of about 130 billion yen in fiscal 2007 to less than one-tenth of that amount, forcing the company to withdraw. Nikon and Olympus have also decided to withdraw from compact digital camera production in China."

According to page 3 of the document released by the Camera & Imaging Products Association (CIPA) in March 2018, it is clear at a glance that the shipment volume of compact digital cameras peaked around 2008 and has been in a sharp decline since then. It is natural that Panasonic, whose compact digital cameras have accounted for a large percentage of its digital camera sales, would feel a sense of crisis.

On the other hand, page 6 of the document shows that the average unit shipment price of interchangeable lens cameras continued to decline until around 2011, but has since been on a steady V-shaped recovery. This can only be attributed to corporate efforts.

A careful look at the graph shows that the average unit shipment price of mirrorless cameras (Non-Reflex), which was initially lower than the average unit shipment price of SLR (Single Lens Reflex) cameras, has reversed since 2016. I think it is safe to say that the main factor that brought about this reversal is the sales of full-frame mirrorless cameras that Sony has introduced to the market since 2013.

The average unit shipment price of compact digital cameras also bottomed out around 2011-12 and has begun to rise. This is due to the fact that manufacturers have stopped manufacturing and selling inexpensive models in favor of high-end models equipped with large sensors and ultra high-power zoom lenses that cannot be imitated by smartphones. However, the recovery in average shipment unit price has been gradual and cannot be called a V-shaped recovery.

The "Digital Camera Composition Ratio by Type 《Value》" on page 10 of the document shows that mirrorless cameras grew to 28% in 2017, while SLR cameras dropped to 45%.

According to the "Interchangeable Lens Type Breakdown by Type 《Value》" on page 12, mirrorless cameras accounted for 38% of the market in 2017, and it seems safe to conclude that the time when the interchangeable lens camera market will shift from SLR cameras to mirrorless cameras is already in the countdown phase.

The "Interchangeable Lens Cameras by Region 《Volume》" on page 16 of the document shows that while Japan and the U.S. are shrinking, the Asian market, excluding Japan, is growing rapidly. Since data showing average shipment unit prices by region are not available in this document, it is unclear how the average shipment unit prices of interchangeable lens cameras sold in Asian markets excluding Japan compare with those in Japan, the U.S., and Europe. However, we often see Asian tourists using Sony full-frame mirrorless cameras at tourist spots in Japan.

Unlike the Japanese, many wealthy Asians, excluding the Japanese, do not seem to recognize that Nikon and Canon are more exclusive brands than Sony in the camera market. And since very few of them have been shooting with SLR cameras for decades and their past lens assets do not hold them back, have they chosen Sony's full-frame mirrorless cameras? Comparing the number of lenses for full-frame mirrorless cameras, Sony's lens lineup (26 lenses) is currently far ahead of Nikon (3 lenses) and Canon (4 lenses).

Panasonic must have been keeping a close eye on Sony to see if it can succeed in the full-frame mirrorless camera market. Sony initially introduced mirrorless cameras with APS-C sensors, which are one size smaller than full-frame cameras. Later, it shifted its main focus from APS-C to full-frame. Panasonic entered the interchangeable lens camera market with a model equipped with a four thirds sensor, which is two sizes smaller than a full frame, so I think they were curious about Sony's move and the market reaction to Sony's full frame mirrorless cameras.

Panasonic must have been surprised to see Sony drive a wedge into the full-frame market, where the hundred-plus Nikon and Canon cameras had been unable to attract any challengers. We are currently in a transitional period where high-end cameras are shifting from full-frame SLRs to full-frame mirrorless cameras. It would not be surprising if Panasonic expects to capture a 15% share of the full-frame market, if not more, by attacking Nikon and Canon, which have over-adapted to SLR cameras, while they still have a gap to exploit.

So how can Panasonic compete in the unassailable full-frame market?

(Continued in Part 2)

first appearance : AGORA