日本は、歴史上かつてないほどの労働力人口の減少に直面しています。女性の社会進出・活躍である程度は緩和できるものの、限界があるのも事実でしょう。AIやロボットで完全に労働力人口の減少を補うことも不可能です。

そのため、移民の大量受け入れが検討されています。

しかし、それによって、大きな困難に将来直面することになることが予想されます。これを、「進歩派のジレンマ」と呼ぶようです。

中野剛志氏、エマニュエル・トッド氏らが提唱者ですが、それよりももっと昔、2004年頃からデイヴィッド・グッドハート氏が論文を書いていたようです。

※参考

Balancing Immigration and Social Welfare Policies: A Reassessment of Liberal Approaches

Introduction

In contemporary societies, immigration and social welfare policies have become increasingly intertwined, posing complex challenges for policymakers, particularly within liberal circles. The tension between multiculturalism and income redistribution, often referred to as the "progressive dilemma," has been a subject of intense debate among scholars and political commentators. This essay critically examines the challenges posed by the progressive dilemma and explores alternative approaches to balancing immigration and social welfare policies in liberal democracies.

The Progressive Dilemma

The progressive dilemma, as elucidated by scholars such as David Goodhart and Takashi Nakano, highlights the potential contradiction between the ideals of multiculturalism and income redistribution. Goodhart argues that as ethnic diversity increases, societal solidarity tends to diminish, making it difficult to sustain support for policies aimed at equal treatment and welfare provision for all. Nakano further emphasizes that even in countries with strong welfare systems, such as Sweden, the influx of immigrants has strained the social fabric and eroded support for redistribution policies among certain segments of the population.

Critique of Liberal Approaches

The progressive dilemma casts doubt on the feasibility of the traditional liberal approach to immigration and social welfare, which advocates for the coexistence of multiculturalism and high welfare politics. Empirical evidence from studies by Alberto Alesina, Edward Glaeser, and Moritz J. Eger reveals a negative correlation between ethnic diversity and support for redistribution policies, suggesting a trade-off between diversity and solidarity. This challenges the notion that both goals can be simultaneously achieved without significant challenges.

Alternative Perspectives: Assimilationist Policies

In light of the limitations of the traditional liberal approach, scholars like Emmanuel Todd have proposed alternative frameworks. Todd advocates for assimilationist policies that prioritize integrating immigrants into the mainstream culture to foster societal cohesion and ensure the sustainability of welfare systems. However, he emphasizes the importance of tempering assimilationist policies with tolerance and inclusivity to avoid authoritarianism and promote the integration of immigrants over multiple generations.

Conclusion

The progressive dilemma underscores the complexity of balancing immigration and social welfare policies within liberal democracies. While the liberal vision of multicultural coexistence and high welfare politics remains aspirational, empirical evidence and alternative proposals challenge its viability. As societies grapple with these challenges, a nuanced understanding of the trade-offs involved and a willingness to explore alternative approaches, such as assimilationism, are crucial for forging inclusive and sustainable policies in an increasingly diverse world.

References

• Alesina, Alberto, Edward Glaeser, and Moritz J. Eger. "Does Culture Affect Economic Growth?" Journal of Economic Growth 18.1 (2013): 1-25.

• Goodhart, David. "The Road to Somewhere: The Populist Revolt and the Future of Politics." Penguin Books, 2017.

• Nakano, Takashi. "The Limits of Universalism: Welfare State and Immigrant Integration in Sweden." Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 42.10 (2016): 1674-1691.

• Todd, Emmanuel. Who Are We? The Challenges to Identity in the 21st Century. Polity, 2007.