F-16s: Addressing Challenges and Creating Opportunities

Introduction
There have been many developments on the frontlines, including the increased presence of guided aerial bombs, that turn old dumb bombs into more precise and deadly weapons. This poses a significant threat, allowing russians to engage targets anywhere around 60 km away, placing them outside the effective range of most air defense systems.

This war is heavily dependent on artillery, leading to two significant challenges for both sides - shortages of ammunition and barrel wear, along with the straightforward combat loss of artillery. In attempts to address these issues, both sides seek foreign assistance, while alternative methods, to a limited extent, such as FPV and aerial bombs serve as partial compensatory measures.

Problem
The increasing use of guided aerial bombs by russians is an increasing problem due to their capacity to carry a much larger payload than conventional artillery shells or kamikaze drones like the Shahed. Russia's aerial bombs typically carry explosives ranging from 100 to 700 kg. With the adoption of the UMPK kit, russian jets gained the capability to transform dumb bombs into gliding munitions, allowing them to target locations from approximately 50 - 65 km away.

This places them beyond the effective range of most if not all, frontline air defense (AD) weaponry. While Ukraine does possess a limited number of AD systems capable of reaching jets deploying gliding bombs, these systems are primarily tasked with protecting more strategically significant installations located farther from the frontline.

In practical terms, this presents a problem of a  systematic character. The number of existing AD systems is insufficient to consistently counter the threat posed by jets launching gliding bombs.

Advancement of this technology, coupled with the recent utilization of the RBK-500 cluster bomb by Russians demonstrates the potential for future problems if russia successfully organizes an industrial-level deployment of these bombs, particularly when boosted by the UMPK kit.

Solution
In my view, deploying F-16s armed with AIM-120D missiles, with an operational range of approximately 100 km (with claims that the range is actually much longer), could effectively mitigate this problem. This capability will allow Ukraine to engage Russian jets carrying guided bombs without flying into the frontline, thus avoiding most russian air defense systems like TOR or BUK. It is crucial to remember that Ukraine needs not just F-16s but also the appropriate AMRAAM missiles to effectively target air threats with air-to-air missiles.

Furthermore, this solution has the potential to not only mitigate the issue with glide bombs but also address concerns related to russian helicopters. Ka-52 and Mi-28 NM helicopters, operating 8-12 km away from their targets and deploying Vikhr and/or LMUR missiles, currently remain outside the effective range of Ukraine's Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) systems.

Summary
I remain skeptical about either side achieving aerial supremacy in this war, given the saturation of air defense (AD) systems that would impede dominance, and russia still operates fighters capable of deploying air-to-air missiles. A good retrospective example is the early stage of the war, where, despite having a larger russian air force and experienced pilots, they failed to establish control over Ukrainian skies. This occurred even with the advantages of surprise and a massive missile barrage against Ukrainian AD and radar sites, long before any serious AD systems from the West were brought to Ukraine.

Given this, the F-16's value lies in its potential to substantially impede Russian air capabilities rather than provide air dominance, possibly attaining favorable local air situations or temporary air superiority during offensive operations. This could offer a crucial window of opportunity for maneuvering. Realizing this potential would likely necessitate a considerable deployment of F-16s equipped with appropriate weaponry, including AIM-120, AGM-158 JASSM, and AGM-154 JSOW.

The crucial aspect I forgot to include in the last sentence is the essential need for both weaponry and radars. The combination of capable radars and weaponry with an operational range exceeding 100 km is necessary. Without this combination, it won't be effective.