"Final Stretch for Raising Minimum Wage to Over 1000 Yen - Small and Medium-sized Company Caution"

Introduction

2023年度の最低賃金引き上げに関する議論が大詰めを迎えています。見通しでは、前年度比で約30年ぶりに4%を超える上昇が予想され、全国平均で初めて時給1000円を超える可能性があります。政府の目標は達成される見通しですが、他国に比べて最低賃金の水準が劣っていることが問題とされています。この引き上げによる生活改善の実感は不透明です。

Discussion

中央最低賃金審議会は23年度の最低賃金目安について議論し、結論は28日の会合で決定される見通しです。現在の全国平均最低賃金は961円であり、政府は1000円以上を目指しています。ただし、新型コロナウイルスの影響が大きかった20年度を除いて、16年度以降毎年3%以上の上昇が続いています。労働者側の委員は審議会で約5%の引き上げを求めており、「年収が200万円程度のワーキングプア水準にとどまる」ためだと主張しています。

一方、経営者側は大幅な賃上げに慎重であり、「人材定着のために防衛的な賃上げをした中小企業が一定程度存在している」と述べています。下請け企業は値上げ交渉で契約を打ち切られる懸念があり、人件費を製品やサービスに転嫁しにくい状況にあります。また、最低賃金近くで働く人は多く、30人未満の事業所では、過去10年で時給が新基準額を下回った人が19.2%と増加しています。

企業は最低賃金の引き上げに対してぎりぎりの水準で給与を上げていることが示されています。また、東京商工リサーチによる調査では、人件費の高騰や人材難を理由にした企業倒産が増加していることも指摘されています。
審議会は8月以降に都道府県ごとに最低賃金を決める目安を示す予定であり、現在最も低いのは沖縄県などの853円です。

全国平均が1000円以上になっても、満たない地域が残る可能性があります。ただし、現在の経済状況では賃上げよりも物価上昇の勢いが強いため、実質賃金はマイナス成長が続いています。生活改善を実感するには、インフレが落ち着くだけでなく、持続的な賃上げが必要とされています。

Conclusion

政府は今後の最低賃金や賃金水準についての議論を始める予定であり、法政大学の山田久教授は「1000円を超えるのは当然で問題はその後。次は1500円にすればいいという話ではなく、どう上げていく仕組みにするかが大事だ」との意見を述べています。

国際的な比較では、日本の最低賃金が他の先進国や新興国に比べて劣っていることが指摘されています。オーストラリアや韓国、インドネシアなどでは、それぞれの国の経済状況に合わせた引き上げが行われているとの報道があります。このような現状では、日本の最低賃金が他国との差により外国人の就労意欲を減退させる懸念が高まっています。

Ver.English

Introduction

The debate over raising the minimum wage for the fiscal year 2023 is reaching its final stages. It is expected to see an increase of about 4% compared to the previous year, surpassing ¥1,000 per hour on a national average, which would be the first time in about 30 years. While the government's goal is likely to be achieved, the wage level still lags behind other countries, and the actual impact on improving living conditions remains uncertain.

DIscussion

The subcommittee of the Central Minimum Wage Council (an advisory body to the Minister of Health, Labour, and Welfare) discussed the reference point for the minimum wage for the fiscal year 2023 on the 26th. A conclusion was deferred to another meeting scheduled for the 28th to reach a decision. The minimum wage is the minimum amount that employers should pay their employees and applies to all workers.
Currently, the national average minimum wage is ¥961. The government aims to raise the national average minimum wage to over ¥1,000 as soon as possible, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for achieving it in June. Apart from the heavily impacted fiscal year 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the minimum wage has been increasing by more than 3% annually since the fiscal year 2016.
Labor-side committee members in the council have demanded an increase of about 5%, arguing that it is necessary to prevent workers from falling into the working poor category with an annual income of around ¥two million. On the other hand, employers are cautious about significant wage increases and argue that some small and medium-sized enterprises have already implemented defensive wage hikes to retain their workforce.
Concerns exist among subcontracting companies that they may face contract cancellations if they engage in price increase negotiations, making it difficult for them to pass on labor costs to their products and services.
Many people work near the minimum wage, and in establishments with less than 30 employees, the proportion of those whose hourly wages fell below the new standard during the fiscal year 2022 was 19.2%, increasing about fourfold in the past ten years. Companies have been raising wages at the brink of their capacity due to consecutive increases in the minimum wage.
According to a survey by Tokyo Shoko Research, the number of cases where corporate bankruptcies were attributed to soaring labor costs and labor shortages in the period from January to June of the year 2023 increased threefold compared to the same period of the previous year.
The council plans to provide guidelines for minimum wage decisions by each prefecture from August onwards. Currently, the lowest minimum wage is in regions like Okinawa, at ¥853. Even if the national average exceeds ¥1,000, there is a possibility that some areas will not meet this level.
At present, the momentum of rising prices is stronger than that of wage increases, and real wages, excluding price fluctuations, have been decreasing by 0.9% compared to the same month of the previous year in May, marking a 14-month consecutive decline. To feel an improvement in living conditions, it is essential not only for inflation to stabilize but also to have sustainable wage increases.
The government is set to initiate discussions on the future minimum wage and wage level after the summer. Professor Hisashi Yamada from Hosei University stated that "it is natural to surpass ¥1,000, but the problem lies in what comes after. It's not about just raising it to ¥1,500; it's important to devise a mechanism for future increases."

Conclusion

Internationally, it has been pointed out that Japan's minimum wage is lower than that of other advanced and emerging countries. There have been reports of Australia, South Korea, Indonesia, and other countries adjusting their minimum wage according to their economic situations.
Given this situation, there is growing concern that the disparity in minimum wages may discourage foreign workers from seeking employment in Japan.